000			04063cam a2200445 i 4500
001			ocn898909721
003			OCoLC
005			20251028093407.0
008			150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2015007310
035			_a(Sirsi) i9780804136693
040			_aDLC _beng _erda _cDLC _dYDXCP _dBTCTA _dBDX _dOCLCF _dON8 _dTUU _dCDX _dIK2 _dUAF _dILI _dMLY _dOQX _dKBC _dOCLCO _dYUS _dOVY _dITD _dOCLCQ _dOCLCO _dRB0 _dBEDGE _dCHVBK _dVF$
019			_a921932489
020			_a9780804136693 _q(hardcover)
020			_a0804136696 _q(hardcover)
020			_z9780804136709 _q(ebook)
020			_a9780804136716 _q(paperback)
020			_a0804136718 _q(paperback)
024	8		_a40025332158
035			_a(OCoLC)898909721 _z(OCoLC)921932489
042			_apcc
050	0	0	_aHB 3730 _b.T47 2015 c.2
049			_aVF$A
100	1		_aTetlock, Philip E. _q(Philip Eyrikson), _d1954- _eauthor.
245	1	0	_aSuperforecasting : _bthe art and science of prediction / _cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
250			_aFirst edition.
264		1	_aNew York : _bCrown Publishers, _c2015
300			_a340 pages : _billustrations ; _c25 cm
336			_atext _btxt _2rdacontent
337			_aunmediated _bn _2rdamedia
338			_avolume _bnc _2rdacarrier
520			_a"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
505	0		_aAn optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.
650		0	_aEconomic forecasting.
650		0	_aForecasting.
700	1		_aGardner, Dan, _d1968- _eauthor.
994			_aC0 _bVF$
999			_c136543 _d136543