Superforecasting : (Record no. 136543)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 04063cam a2200445 i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field ocn898909721
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field OCoLC
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20251028093407.0
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER
LC control number 2015007310
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number (Sirsi) i9780804136693
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency DLC
Language of cataloging eng
Description conventions rda
Transcribing agency DLC
Modifying agency YDXCP
-- BTCTA
-- BDX
-- OCLCF
-- ON8
-- TUU
-- CDX
-- IK2
-- UAF
-- ILI
-- MLY
-- OQX
-- KBC
-- OCLCO
-- YUS
-- OVY
-- ITD
-- OCLCQ
-- OCLCO
-- RB0
-- BEDGE
-- CHVBK
-- VF$
019 ## -
-- 921932489
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9780804136693
Qualifying information (hardcover)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 0804136696
Qualifying information (hardcover)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
Canceled/invalid ISBN 9780804136709
Qualifying information (ebook)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9780804136716
Qualifying information (paperback)
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 0804136718
Qualifying information (paperback)
024 8# - OTHER STANDARD IDENTIFIER
Standard number or code 40025332158
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number (OCoLC)898909721
Canceled/invalid control number (OCoLC)921932489
042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE
Authentication code pcc
050 00 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number HB 3730
Item number .T47 2015 c.2
049 ## - LOCAL HOLDINGS (OCLC)
Holding library VF$A
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Tetlock, Philip E.
Fuller form of name (Philip Eyrikson),
Dates associated with a name 1954-
Relator term author.
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Superforecasting :
Remainder of title the art and science of prediction /
Statement of responsibility, etc. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement First edition.
264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE
Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture New York :
Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer Crown Publishers,
Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice 2015
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent 340 pages :
Other physical details illustrations ;
Dimensions 25 cm
336 ## - CONTENT TYPE
Content type term text
Content type code txt
Source rdacontent
337 ## - MEDIA TYPE
Media type term unmediated
Media type code n
Source rdamedia
338 ## - CARRIER TYPE
Carrier type term volume
Carrier type code nc
Source rdacarrier
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--Provided by publisher.
504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE
Bibliography, etc. note Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
505 0# - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Economic forecasting.
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Forecasting.
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Gardner, Dan,
Dates associated with a name 1968-
Relator term author.
994 ## -
-- C0
-- VF$
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Total checkouts Full call number Barcode Date last seen Cost, replacement price Price effective from Koha item type
    Library of Congress Classification     Storms Research Center Storms Research Center Main Collection 10/28/2025   HB 3730 .T47 2015 98651051 10/28/2025 16.63 10/28/2025 Book
    Library of Congress Classification     Storms Research Center Storms Research Center Main Collection 10/28/2025   HB 3730 .T47 2015 C.2 98650538 10/28/2025 16.63 10/28/2025 Book